Solar Opportunities in Israel (by Yanir Allouche)
The Promised land of Moses and Abraham eventually become honey and milk
All about PV opportunities in Israel
Solar in Israel

מחפשים לדעת אם כדאי לכם להתקין מתקן סולארי בגג ביתכם

This is for the house owners in Israel (in Hebrew)
מחפשים לדעת את כדאי לכם כלכלית להשקיע במתקן סולארי על הגג, עשינו בשבילכם את הטבלא הנ"ל שתוכל לעזור לכם.
בחוץ יספקו לכם הרבה נתונים אך הינה החישוב המדוייק.
הנחות העבודה : מחיר וואט מותקן 6.5$ , ריבית על הלוואה בנקאית 5.5 +מדד, ריבית על כסף בחסכון - 4% , הלואה ל 10 שנים, ביטוח 0.5% ממחיר המוצר, והחלפת אינוורטר כל 11 שנה

להלן הטבלאות לחישוב מספר השנים להחזר השקעה. בטבלא העליונה תוכלו לקבל אינדיקציה לגבי הגג שלכם , עד כמה הוא מנצל את השמש. עם הציון של הגג אתם עוברים לטבלא התחתונה וע"פ הצלבה ...<< MORE >>

Shadow Problems with Solar Panels

Keeping the module perpendicular to the incoming sunlight means that the module intercepts the maximum amount of sunlight. If you have trouble visualizing this concept, take a paper and hold it up to the sun while observing its shadow. If the paper (or module) is edge on to the sunlight, then it casts a small shadow. If the paper cover (or module’s face) is perpendicular to the sunlight, then the shadow is as big as it will ever be. The size of the shadow shows us exactly how much sunlight is being intercepted. In the case of a PV module, maximum shadow means maximum power.

The problem is that the Sun constantly moves in relation to the stationary PV module. Actually, the apparent motion of the Sun is due to the Earth’s motion Even if we place a module so that is perpendicular to the Sun at solar noon, it is not even close to perpendicular in the morning and evening. This daily east to west solar motion is called solar azimuth. Also consider that the Sun’s apparent height in the sky changes from winter to summer. This yearly north to south solar motion is called solar declination.

Mant researches calculate the best tilt to optimize energy output from one panel. but what about the other panels in the array? Here I will try to show how shadow add difficulty in designing solar field.

We all know that a solar panel is a sequence of cell connecting in a series. Kyocera present it in its module characteristics the shade issue very well - partial shading, even one cell of a 36 cells module , will reduce it power output dramatically.



That is why shade is something to take into considerations while designing an panel array.
In order to understand the problem I build a model that analyzing the shadow profile of every hour during the year (Lat-31', Long.-34') and this is the result for January and February.





This is the exact amount of hours the area behind a module suffers from shadow (the diagram above presented a 3X6 meter behind the panel, green area represent no shadow, yellow few hours of shadow, and red is more then 40 hours of shadow in 2 months only).
It is very clear that an area of 3-5sqM from the panel suffers from shadow. If we add the aspect of the panel (i.e. if shadow shade only 10% of the adjacent panels then the impact is close to 100% reduction) it makes the area even larger.

As refers to trackers, a research I read about trackers show that this problem is 3-5 times more with trackers then without them. That is why trackers are not so much in use in places where land is limited.

The study I made based on geometric calculations of combined movement of the sun azimuth during the day and the altitude of the sun along the year.

For a  full year diagram please contact me at yanir@bizbee.co.uk

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Solar for recession period

A subsidies program for 5MW farms and roof-tops will be able to help Israel increase capital investment and reduce unemployment.

Based on the expected Feed-in Tariffs for small solar farms ($0.4/KWh) and current grid tariff at mid-day hours (averaged  $0.17/KWh), each 100MW program will need a $40M from government annual budget. Since the solar subsidies financed by amplifications of grid tariff, it then will require raising prices of less then 1% (less then 0.004 NIS, or $0.001, for each Kwh).

Study made in the US (by Navigant Consulting inc. June 2006) show that each MW generates an average of 26 new positions in the labor market. If this study is true,( it seems as it deeply considers all aspects of manufacturing, installation, maintenance etc. in this industry)  100MW program will boost the labor market by 2,600 new positions, most of then in the Negev Area.

Not to mention about $500M in capital investment, saving investment of Billions on $ in expending coal power plants (as were recently requested by the Israel Electric Company), and less usage of oil toward more green energy.

The Obama campaign presented a $18 billion program to subsidies solar energy, that is to generate above 60,000 new positions. Will Israel government follow and bring the annual 200MW program as the Minister of Utility (Fuad) said few months ago …..future will tell.

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Israel Electric Company Report

IEC (Israel Electric Company) published its annual report. Year 2007 ended with 19.2 B NIS ($5 B) in revenue, up by 6% compare with previous year. In year 2007 IEC produce a total of 49 Terra-Watt/h. This represent an average of 0.39 NIS ($0.1) / KWh.
 
Checking deep into the IEC Taoz rates (variable rate by pick and low hours ) the average cost of KWh during day time (when solar panels generate electricity) is about 0.66-0.7 NIS ($0.17).
 
Grid Parity in Israel case and under assumptions that radiation (in Israel) is 2200Wp, will exist when panels will reach 19%  efficiency , Poly-Si will hit $70/kg and prices will go down to $2/watt (ex-work) - i.e. Grid Parity in south part of Israel by 2012
 
:)
 

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Solar Radiation in Israel

The Ministry of Utilities published this map on the web, describing the solar radiation zones in the south part of Israel:

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Sun paths over Isaerl (N = 32)


The sun path change according to earth position , here are the radiation angles in Israel in each season:
 In Spring and Autumn:
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Few more pictures from The Negev desert in Israel




 


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Will Israel follow Germany, Spain and Colorado?

In the last 6 months a new trend appears. Mature market with years of solar subsidies programs suddenly began to understand the high margins manufacturers does and slowly shrink those programs in order to do both, decrease panel prices and reduce subsidies per Watt. Analysts predictions point subsidies cuts as one of th main force to reduce PV panels prices. We all know that First Solar reached $1.18/w in their production line. If that is the manufacturing costs how come that panel prices are at $4/w?
 
Important events took place in the last 6 months will carry this trend forward - (1)On the 6/7/2008 German lawmakers voted to cut solar feed-in tariffs by as much as 10 percent in each of the next three years (from 0.34-0.48 EU/KWh). (2) On September this year Spain set their new feed in tariff to 0.32 EU from 0.43 EU, (3) in October 2008 passage of federal solar investment tax credits has prompted one Colorado utility to reduce the rate it will pay to solar installers by 40 percent.
 
Taking into account that the first 2 markets generate more then 50% of PV global demand this trend will impact PV module prices dramatically.
 
What action Israel government should take in this new situation?
The current feed-in tariff for roof-tops in Israel is 2NIS/KWh (0.41 EU). These tariffs are currently one of the lowest in the EU region for roof-tops, the result 200KW new installed PV every month and the industry expect it to grow to 1MW new installation each month next year. If subsidies were higher by 10% the market was totally different.
 
Another feed-in tariff expected next year (According to Ministry of Utility in Israel) for small farms.  All people in the industry expect small PV farms feed-in tariff to be lower then roof top feed-in tariff (as in Germany and Spain). These feed-in tariff is expected to range between 1.5NIS/KWh (0.31 EU) and 1.8NIS/KWh (0.37 EU).
 
It is nice that Israel follow global trend, but lawmaker must understand that Israel low Feed-in Tariff will affect no one in the global market, it will affect only its local PV market evolves.

If lawmakers wants to boost the PV market they would better pick the 0.40 EU/KWh feed in tariff for the first 100MW cap. International groups will not align their panel prices toward a small market with poor programs.

Unfortunately the more realistic forecast according to current  Ministry of Treasure policy the feed-in tariff will be as low as 1.6-1.7 NIS/ KWh.
 
 
 
 

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Knesset members wake up


Few week ago the US Senate approve $18B in subsidies for the solar market.
Germany solar market has over 60,000 employees working in this market.
 
And Israel -  about 100 employees and about 200KW of solar panel installed each month - actualy NADA
 
We are Sorry - The Knesset Members are working on their next election and since they have one every 2.5 years its a never ending story.
 
Wake up - we have 2 times radiation here (compare with Germany)!!
Our economy enter to a recession  and need engines to push her back.
We have major technologies pioneers
 
Wake up!!

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Does Israel needs to spend money on subsidizing the solar market?

 
Many people argue with recent decisions to put more and more subsidies on PV farms.

I heard an analyzing made by the Ministry of Treasure which said that opposite to the logic, they support subsidies. They said that it is the cheapest way to solve high peaks in electricity demands during day time.

In Israel, for example,  the highest demand (peak time) is in the middle of the summer. Electricity demand can reaches 10 GW and due to the current capacity shortage is expected in a year or 2. But going deep into the detail of the demand curve, the picture is different - this peak time is at 14:00 each day and 6 hours later it goes back to 6 GW. i.e the pick caused by intensive usage of electricity in the work time (Air Conditions and Plants).

So It is all about 8-10 hours during the day time .In those hours the sun is in maximum radiation and solar can easily solve this issue.

Just recently, for instance, the Ministry of Treasure in Israel was required to budget $800M next year for expanding electric production by 300MW (requested from the Israeli Electric Company)on top of per KWh annual income.
Small calculating I made showed that solar subsidies will be only 2-3 times higher but it will spread on 20 years.

Solar farms, based on analysts researches, show that it will be cheaper to budget solar subsidies then to budget a power plant.I’m sure that if people from the Ministry of Treasure said that, it is not because its GREEN !

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